Major firms such as Goldman and JPMorgan cool on Reddit stock post-IPO

Published Mon, Apr 15 20241:04 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Apr 15 20241:39 PM EDT

A slate of major Wall Street firms has begun coverage of Reddit — and some of them see the stock's gains moderating from here. The social media company, which made its stock market debut on March 21, popped 48% on its first day and closed at $50.44. As of Friday's close, Reddit has gained more than 24% from its initial offering price of $34 a share. Notably, Reddit opened at $47 a share when it first started trading last month, and that means investors who bought it at that price have already lost 10%. A few notable banks are in wait-and-see mode as they kick off coverage. "We recognize that there is likely upside to near-term numbers, but we remain on the sidelines," said JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth, noting that the firm is keeping an eye on several metrics, including Reddit's traction in the online ad space. He rated the company neutral and gave it a price target of $47, anticipating 11% upside from Friday. RDDT ALL mountain RDDT stock chart Many major banks remain unconvinced JPMorgan's Anmuth is in good company. Goldman Sachs issued a neutral rating on Reddit, while Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an equal weight rating. The three banks, along with Bank of America, were also the lead underwriters of Reddit's public offering. While Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan pointed out several long-term secular growth themes, including artificial intelligence, digital advertising and the growth of the creator economy, he thinks near-term obstacles may weigh these catalysts down. "In the current market environment, we see debates around overall macroeconomic impacts on digital advertising, the pace/cadence of budget trajectory and overall industry competitive dynamics as being the biggest potential drivers of upside/downside volatility in the coming year," he wrote. Sheridan's 12-month price target of $40 was one of the lowest on Wall Street and implies shares could slide 5% from here. Morgan Stanley had a slightly more optimistic price target of $45, corresponding to a roughly 6.5% gain. "Valuation leaves us on the sidelines as we wait for evidence of outsized user growth and/or faster execution," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak. Other analysts are more optimistic Of the major banks, Citi and Deutsche Bank had more optimistic near-term outlooks for Reddit. Citi analyst Ronald Josey's price target of $53, which forecasts 25% upside, is among one of the highest on the Street. Josey said Reddit's current hurdles have not gone unnoticed, but he thinks these are outweighed by the social media platform's catalysts. These catalysts include improving engagement trends and monetization, as well as expanding margins and data licensing opportunities. "We acknowledge the potential risks around some of Reddit's content and that it remains earlier-on in its ads monetization journey, but we also believe that is the opportunity as Reddit expands its advertiser base and launches newer ad units around Shopping, Video, and Search," he wrote. Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black cited many of the same catalysts as the reasoning behind his $50 price target, which corresponds to an 18% gain. "We think Reddit is on the early end of a number of positive inflections: Top-of-funnel growth is accelerating, the ad platform is in the early stages of being built to address lower funnel objectives, the data licensing business is in the very early stages of growth, and the company is entering a harvest period in costs after aggressively adding to headcount over the last couple years," the analyst wrote.